Russia Is Winning The Industrial Warfare Race

By Moon Of Alabama

Last year I mocked the media for claiming that ‘Russia is running out of’ whatever.

> Back in March I had warned that Lies Do Not Win Wars. Here is another practical example.

After allegedly having ‘run out of missiles’ and, more importantly, patience, the leadership of the Russian Federation decided to de-electrify Ukrainian cities with a ‘barrage of missile strikes’. <

Western military commentators have finally started to accept the obvious. Russia is winning and doing so by a large margin.

A similar turn can be seen in dearth of new ‘Russia is running out of’ stories which get now replaced by acknowledgements that Russia’s weapon industries are out-producing the West:

Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials SayNY Times
Moscow’s missile production now exceeds prewar levels, officials say, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable this coming winter.

As a result of the sanctions, American officials estimate that Russia was forced to dramatically slow its production of missiles and other weaponry at the start of the war in February 2022 for at least six months. But by the end of 2022, Moscow’s military industrial manufacturing began to pick up speed again, American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose the sensitive assessment now concede.

Before the war, one senior Western defense official said, Russia could make 100 tanks a year; now they are producing 200.

Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.

As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West.

Russia’s production costs are also far lower than the West’s, in part because Moscow is sacrificing safety and quality in its effort to build weapons more cheaply, Mr. Salm said. For instance, it costs a Western country $5,000 to $6,000 to make a 155-millimeter artillery round, whereas it costs Russia about $600 to produce a comparable 152-millimeter artillery shell, he said.

I believe that the numbers of current weapon production in Russia, which the New York Times cites, are too low. Consider that back in February the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev spoke of an ‘exponential increase’ in weapon output:

Medvedev said Moscow had increased military production “by tens of times” at some factories and was closely studying weapons fired into Russian-held areas from the Ukrainian side in an effort to gain an advantage.

I would also argue that sanctions were never really able to hinder Russia’s arms industry. No military uses the latest and greatest chips when it comes to making weapons. Putting sanctioning on those is thus pretty useless. Some old Intel 80386 compatible CPU is, correctly programmed, sufficient to manage a modern artillery system. For little money one can get thousands of these in any Asian electronic market.

There are a few exceptions that need special stuff. For some time Russia was behind in the production of night vision equipment. It imported some from France which blocked further transfers. But that issues seems to have been solved. For basic materials and energy Russia has all it needs. It also has well qualified staff to develop and build new weapons.

Five years ago the Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed a number of new weapon systems which were superior to western ones. He also mentioned that same of these were based on “new physical principles” which had been discovered by Russian scientists. At the recent Eastern Economic Forum he repeated that claim:

If one looks into the security sphere, new physical principles weapons will ensure the security of any country in the near historic perspective. We understand this very well and are working on it, Putin said.

(I don’t find those sentences in the plenum transcript but trust Sputnik to have it right.)

There is some guessing what Putin might have meant. I thought about it for quite a while but have to admit that I have no clue what he has in mind.

A warning that Russia will outproduce the West was given back in June 2022 when Alex Vershinin of RUSI issued a note about The Return of Industrial Warfare:

The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.

It has become to expensive for the West to regain that capability.

That Russia was running out of stuff was always wishful thinking, not fact based analysis. On that point it took the media more than a year to catch up with reality. On other aspects of the the war, casualty numbers come to mind, the media are still miles behind.





24 responses to “Russia Is Winning The Industrial Warfare Race”

  1. […] Russia Is Winning The Industrial Warfare Race […]

    1. John Roberts Avatar
      John Roberts

      The idea that a great industrial power like Russia cannot produce sufficient quantities of munitions vital to the functioning of its army in a war that it sees as existential and that it has planned for overseveral years in advance is ludicrous to begin with, therefore it was and remains pure propaganda on the part of the media in the European Union and elsewhere to say such things. Good for morale in the short term maybe but still wishful thinking.

    2. tj rich Avatar
      tj rich

      If this is true? Why is Putin begging North Korea for military aid?

      1. Woopy Avatar

        Please show us where and when president Putin was begging for weapons.

      2. USA Inc Avatar
        USA Inc

        Russia has huge surplus of cash. Taking it out of the West and giving some of it to bolster NK economy . NK becomes an ally and holds a flank against the Western fascists. NK can pin down SK , Japan, quite nicely thank you very much.

  2. John Avatar

    Possibly the RF has made a breakthrough for quantum radar. If so then stealth will be obsolete.

  3. Gary Avatar

    It seems some western ‘thinkers’ believed they could simply wish weapons into existence and they would magicallly appear ready for use.

    1. Realist Avatar

      Just a bit of exceptional Yankee arrogance you see working its magic! You know the old chant ,”USA, USA, USA, we’re number one, we’re number one.” It allows some of us to sleep at night after making so many threats.

  4. Prometheus Avatar

    Nato is running out of camouflage for its WA$P supremacism….and proxy cannon-fodder.

    1. Unrepentant Sinner Avatar
      Unrepentant Sinner

      Due to the highly restrictive comment’s system in the WordPress program, I will not be seen neither posting or commenting articles on the blog until a solution is found to the problem. I consider invaluable all the comments by fellow readers and obviously we learn from each other. Without free interchange of opinions, we are at the mercy of the Evil Empire that most of us fight against. ICH is one of the most valuable sources of honest and true information that we have so I’m very disheartened by this situation.

    2. Realist Avatar

      Arrogance is never in short supply in the USA, although Ukrainians might become a disappearing resource everywhere.

  5. philosophyofgoodnews Avatar

    The advancement of Russia weapons was presented publicly in 2018 by the president Putin. No-one took it seriously, or at least it looked like that. Some hints about Tesla 4 inventions he patented in Russia and still we do not know particulars of them.

  6. tim Avatar

    When western nations switched to producing vast quantities of Barby and Ken dolls in all the different hues, then their military advantage collapsed.
    They should have stuck with the 155mm shells.

  7. lupus Avatar

    NATO’s propaganda has forced it to make decisions based on bad information. In this Ukraine war, the propaganda meme has been that Russia is incompetent and that American weapons are superior. NATO has thereby forced itself into following its own meme and the war is going accordingly – badly.
    A similar scenario of lies is being played out with respect to matters economic and the results are going to be similar – bad.

    1. braithwa842 Avatar

      I agree. Western propaganda was so good that even western decision makers appear to have believed our propaganda.

      The “Spring Offensive” and the sanctions were based on a western superiority that existed only in western propaganda. People mentioning that the emperor had no clothes were labelled as “Putin Puppets” and marginalized, even in places where an appreciation of reality was essential. It was meant to be effective for the media for public consumption, of course, but was also effective at the politician level (e.g. Lindsey Graham) where decisions were made. If you listened to General Petreus, either he was lying outright or apparently even Generals were blinded by our powerful propaganda.

      E.U countries have made decisions very much to the detriment of their countries. E.U. heads may have known better, but also knew that challenging the status quo would cost them their careers.

    2. Woopy Avatar

      The US propaganda machine is so intense and constant that the liars that created now believe their own lies. So now the that the liars believe that the US is superior in everything they no longer feel the need for increases in technology, manufacturing, or anything else. After all, they are God’s chosen and superior to all else.

  8. wallace Avatar

    Russia’s performance in WW2 should leave us with no illusions about its capabilities. You only have to think of the spectacular advances of the Wehrmacht in the months from June 1941, the horrendous collapse of Russian armies, the vast encirclements and the capture of 3 million prisoners. All this from June to November with Moscow and Leningrad apparently about to fall.
    And then what? Not only did Leningrad hold out for 2 horrendous years but Moscow not only did not fall but saw the Germans reeling and helpless under well-planned and powerful counter attacks. Yes, Stalin no doubt caused further catastrophes until he put it all in the hands of Zhukov etc
    And then Stalingrad, the Kursk salient, Operation Bagration, the fall of Berlin.

    What madness or self-serving vanity, or sheer spineless or doltishness caused NATO’s European to advance relentlessly into those former Russian satellite states in Eastern Europe and then to embroil Ukraine also, crossing an ultimate red line?

    What nation in history has been invaded so often and catastrophically as Russia? Did they give a thought at all? The Mongols and Tartars in the middle ages, Teutonic knights, Lithuanians, Poles in the 16/17 centuries? Sweden under Charles12 in early 1700’s, Napoleon briefly in Moscow itself in 1812, the Germans with Brest-Litovsk in WW1, the White sympathising Western powers in the Civil War and, of course, not least the horrors of invasion, occupation, massive destruction and 30 million dead in 1940’s

    Final point relevant to the article: the vastly accelerated tank and other weapons production that far exceeded the over-engineered German tank output.

    Find a basis to end this. No more ridiculous battle cries; the West and Ukrainian politicians set this dreadful series of events in motion as if proving a spurious need for NATO when previously there wasn’t one. Back from the brink!

    1. Mosaik Avatar

      Wallace: Sure, back from the brink, when Russia hears the words “We surrender unconditionally.”

  9. Not the Moon Avatar
    Not the Moon

    The Moon is a Russian troll, and I have noticed before that he does not really know much about military matters.

    Now, Moon, if Russia really can produce so much, why is it trying to get ammunition from North Korea? Why is it shooting surface to air missiles into the Ukraine instead of ground to ground missiles? If it can produce so many new tanks, what’s up with the old T62s and T55s being brought out of storage?

    “Five years ago the Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed a number of new weapon systems which were superior to western ones.”

    Which were? Have we seen them in action? Vaporware, perhaps?

    1. Woopy Avatar

      Please show us where and when Russia is asking North Korea for weapons.

      1. Not the Moon Avatar
        Not the Moon

        This was widely reported, although most likely not in the Russian media. I wonder why?

      2. Woopy Avatar

        To not the moon: I ask again, “please show us where and when Russia is asking North Korea for weapons”. We’d all like in on this source of truth.

      3. Not the Moon Avatar
        Not the Moon

        Woopy asks again where it was reported that NK is selling munitions to Russia. I don’t know what Woopy reads, but it has all over the media. Ttry Google, dear Woopy. And do your own legwork.

    2. USA Inc Avatar
      USA Inc

      Russia invests part of the money it is pulling out of the fascist West and sends it to North Korea in the greatest finger to the West – brilliant ! Breaking the sanction it was conducting against NK at Western behest with Armaments Supply, – beautiful. ! China does same – double beautiful ! Now there will be free trade and Russia will supply food to feed Koreans and save them from starvation. God Bless Putin. This is the only way to bring these people back into the fold. The fascist Wests ethos of lie, cheat, steal, sanction, destroy, kill, genocide has worn thin around the world. They have had enough. BRICS + everybody else is proof enough. Meanwhile – NK has Russia’s flank – pinning down SK n Japan.. The owners of the Corporate Gulag have to be the dumbest people on the planet – watch as they sanction themselves from the world. Cant say I am displeased. I wonder when the inmates will eventually get restless

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