On October 7 2023 Hamas breached the fence around Gaza. It infiltrated military installations and Kibbutzes with the intent to take as many hostages as possible. These were to be taken into Gaza for future prisoner exchanges.
Despite local warnings the leadership of the Zionist entity was surprised by the move. Its overreaction and the Hannibal directive led to the death of many hostages.
The event was a shock to the Israeli public. It had felt secure. October 7 and the six months of fighting in Gaza and at the northern border have changed that.
But the danger so far came only from mere militia, Hizbullah and Hamas. While those are capable they do lack the instruments of a full fledged nation state.
Still overconfident of its own capabilities the leadership of the Zionist entity made a second mistake. It had already attacked Iranian envoys in Syria and Lebanon. It topped that with an attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria. It did not expect Iran to respond to it.
But pushed by its own population Iran had to respond. It had to do so in a way that was convincing but would not lead to further escalations. A very difficult to achieve balance.
Its attack on Israeli airbases in the Negev and a Mossad base on the Golan heights were successful despite the facts that:
- Israel and everybody else was warned of the strike
- several Israeli allies – the U.S., UK, France, Jordan – added their significant means to help Israeli air defenses
- the targets were one of the most difficult to strike.
As Scott Ritter opines:
The U.S. has an advanced AN/TPY-2 X-band radar stationed at Har Qeren, in the Negev desert. Its mission is to detect Iranian missile launches, and pass targeting data to Israeli Arrow and David’s Sling and U.S. THAAD ABM batteries deployed to protect sensitive Israeli sites, including Dimona and the Nevatim and Ramon air bases.
Iranian missiles struck both Nevatim and Ramon air bases. The best surveillance radar in the world, working in concert with the most sophisticated anti-missile defenses in the world, were impotent in the face of the Iranian attack.
I would argue that the “best surveillance radar in the world” and the “most sophisticated anti-missile defenses in the world” are likely whatever the Russians have.
But anyway.
The attack pushed through all defenses and hit the assigned targets. (How precise it did so will not be known for quite some time.)
It was a technically impressive and resoundingly successful operation.
Israel will likely refrain from hitting back. If simply because it has no effective defense against a similar strike and certainly not enough of anything to fend of a series of such strikes.
Just ask yourself. What would happen:
- if Iran were to strike without warning?
- if Israeli allies were unprepared or unwilling to counter a strike?
- if Iran would hit more valuable and/or non-military industrial targets?
Any such attack could be catastrophic for Israel.
Security for its Jewish population is the core reason of the Zionist state. It was the argument Israel made to further immigration.
Israel is no longer secure. It can no longer do as it wants without having to fear the consequences.
It will take some time for this fact to sink into the Zionists’ mind.
But it will.
In consequence of October 7 and April 14 the Zionist population of Israel may well decrease.
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